It has been going on for centuries. It is no different from a game of chess, except Garry Kasparov isn’t sitting across from Bobby Fischer. Espionage and intelligence gathering are simply ways in which states practice the “art” of realism in the theater of international relations. So please do spare me the public outrage and shock. Don’t believe me? As presented below, Exhibit 1.
As a part of my job, I was asked to write a piece of research on Afghanistan’s new found wealth. Included below is the original draft that was deemed too flippant by the boss.
The “news” of $1 trillion worth of minerals in Afghanistan has been well circulated, but there are plenty of reasons to forego chasing after this “El Dorado”, at least in the near term. The existence of such a mineral base was well charted by the Soviets in the 1980s. The development of these resources never took place because of the internal strife that has plagued the country for the last three decades. Before people start swooning (too late perhaps?) over the “huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium”, as described by the NY Times, we should carefully consider the following points.
The above list reflects only a small set of headwinds that will defer the development of Afghanistan’s natural resources. Provided that only one out of five factors listed is related to the technical aspects of mining/exploration while the rest pertained to geopolitical intrigues, this should further underscore the difficulty in developing any future projects in Afghanistan. Even though “the Saudi Arabia of Lithium” may have a nicer ring than “the graveyard of empires”, I remain dubious as to the viability of country’s future as a mining mecca.
The life of a mining analyst is rarely dull, especially on mine visits. I travel to exotic places, usually in the middle of nowhere, hundreds of miles from the nearest Starbucks and the rest of civilization. My last trip took me to the heart of the Brazilian rain forest where I battled malaria bearing mosquitoes, other disease ridden insects, not to mention all the treacherous jungle paths. I was told, however, that I had the good fortune of not encountering any pythons or boas, or packs of wild boars that would more or less gore you to death. And yes, I have already thanked Jesus, Allah, and Buddha for such small favors.
The flight from Miami to Manaus was fairly uneventful, though I half expected to see live chickens in wooden cages on the flight after seeing some of the other items people tried to carry on (entire set of car tires for example). I spent the first day with another analyst and banker from different firms in Manaus, just taking in the sights and the local colors. The following morning bright and early, we boarded a flight to Itaituba at 5am in the morning. I was so exhausted from the lack of sleep that I passed out quickly, before the plane even started rolling. As it turns out, that was a wise choice as the sleep was necessary for the day that was about to come.
After landing in Itaituba, we were immediately ushered to an adjacent airfield for chartered planes. I had learned from the prior mine visits to Mexico (tale from another time) that a chartered flight does not necessarily imply G4s and ‘61 Bollingers. Our chartered plane is once again a single-prop Cessna that had certainly seen better days. The banker was obviously mortified about our travel situation, rightly so as even I was somewhat concerned about flying in such a small plane over the vast sea that is the Amazonian rain forest.
The first thing I noticed about this particular plane was that there was a make-shift cargo pod welded awkwardly under the plane, which I thought was curious because I was certain that having the cargo pod there would throw off the balance of the plane. As I was trying to impress upon my new banker friend the safety of the plane in spite of its size and appearance, I decided to simply glaze over the point. I was pulling out all the stops and selling the plane hard, making up safety specifications and statistics that probably didn’t exist. In the middle of my spiel, while my words still hung in the air, two engineers brought out two make shift seats and stuck them into the plane. I could not believe the impeccably poor timing of it and how quickly I was made a liar of.
Things didn’t get better. As soon as we boarded the plane, I saw how they “solved” the balance problem induced by the make-shift cargo pod. In the very far back of the plane, there were about three-dozen bricks strewn around, acting as counterweights. The banker’s ashen face said it all as my confidence began to erode. Flying over layers and layers of the Amazon rain forest in what I now conceded as a piece of shit plane no longer seemed like a prize-winning idea. I forced myself to sleep in spite of the whining rotor. Hey call it what you want, if the plane had gone down, I sure as hell didn’t want to be awake for the occasion.
Landing on the dirt strip jolted me awake. Our reception was a lone pick-up truck that looked like it had spent a bad day in Bosnia. The wooden planks in the back of the truck were self-explanatory. Pleasantries were exchanged as we piled into the back like vagabonds and migrant workers. The engine roared to life and we sped off into the rain forest. The thick green canopy blocked out the sky as we sped along the dirt road, hitting just about every pothole that existed. I held on for dear life and tried to look natural. The banker attempted to look nonchalant, but his clenched jaws and bulging eyes betrayed him. After a 15-minute teeth rattling ride, we arrived at the mine site and took off on foot.
I quickly realized how unprepared I was for the next leg of the trip. I was dressed like a typical New Yorker and my Kenneth Cole loafers were no match for the jungle paths. As we trekked through the thick foliage, the mining engineer regaled us with the stories of the jungles. It didn’t take long for the topic of the conversation to turn to the local wildlife. Apparently pythons, boas, and various assortments of venomous snakes made their homes in the area. The engineer cheerfully informed us that if any one of us were bitten, death is guaranteed to occur in less than five hours. I did the math quickly in my head, but it took the banker a few seconds longer to add up the total travel time from the multiple legs of trip, “but the nearest hospital capable of handling this kind of case is at least 6 hours away…”
The end of the day did not come fast enough. I collapsed on to the twin-sized hotel bed, consumed by extreme fatigue. It didn’t matter that the humidity soaked sheets stuck to my skin, or that the entire bed may be bug infested, I drifted quickly into my dreams. But before I did so, I thought about how little I knew of the realm outside of New York, and how much of the world I have yet to see. And that the streets of New York, the concrete jungle, have got nothing on the real jungle.
This is actually a fairly old rule. It was formulated years ago after watching a slew of films and shows regarding the con (confidence trick, grift, bunko, etc.). Watching Mickey Bricks and his crew (Hu$tle) profit time and again from the insatiability of human greed is almost as satisfying as watching Johnny Hooker’s evolution from a short-con player to a long-con artist under the mentorship of Henry Gondorff (The Sting).
We have all been targets of a con. Remember the Nigerians with multimillion dollar fortunes tied up in accounts and simply needed advance payments in order to recover the funds? After all, what does $5,000, $10,000, or even $100,000 matter now when you will be rewarded with millions for your “assistance” after the full recovery of funds?
I hope that most of us simply laughed, turned our heads, and hit the delete button after receiving e-mails such as that; but what if the scam were more subtle? This is where Rule #2 comes in. When a situation, a choice, or a deal is presented to you, consider the cost you are expected to outlay and the benefit that you are expected to reap, if the latter exceeds the former by a wildly disproportionate amount, perhaps it is time to consider walking away. Nothing is free in this country, or in this world for that matter.
Naturally there are exceptions to any rules (except Rule #1), but the rareness factor tends to make them insignificant in the case of Rule #2.
The spoken word seems to have little or no meaning these days. People keep copious amount of documents for the smallest things. Business combinations now come with thousand plus page merger agreements that make banking analyst hours at Lazard the envy of first year law associates. Whatever happened to trust, before lawyers, before written contracts, when verbal agreements and simple handshakes amongst gentlemen sufficed?
In spite of it all, I hold as supreme the axiom of always honor all that is spoken, regardless of personal cost. It is obvious that any decent human being would recognize the value in the former part of the axiom, but the latter often complicates or even precludes its execution. Now you may wonder: what exactly does “personal cost” constitute? Unfortunately, I do not have a specific definition, but please feel free to use the following as a general guideline:
Personal cost: any inclination that you may have towards reneging on anything.
Aside from a sense of righteousness, I really haven’t the foggiest on why this is my first and foremost rule. I only hope that I will continue to abide by it. I also promise that not all of my rules will sound so somber.
As I haven’t written anything pertinent to the theme of this blog yet, here is some random musings to hold you over. I wrote the following brief not as an in depth analysis, but as a quick overview of the issue surrounding North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. As such, I am happy to receive any feedbacks and criticisms.
North Korea’s successful nuclear test on May 25th, 2009 has garnered much international attention. Even though the small Asian nation had possessed nuclear capabilities since its first test in October 2006, the bravado that accompanied the recent test calls for a closer examination of US foreign policy on North Korea. North Korea’s nuclear capability is an immediate threat towards South Korea and Japan, both of which are key strategic allies of the United States. With the balance of power shifting so drastically, it would behoove the United States to reassess its policy for the region as well.
The current paradigm of engaging North Korea through the Six-Party Talks clearly does not provide a strong track record in containing and deterring North Korea’s nuclear ambition. Thus, a carefully thought out policy response from the United States is crucial. How the US responds would have implications on other nations seeking nuclear capabilities, namely Iran. If the US policy response is not backed by solid actions or failed to achieve a certain measure of success in the international eye, Iran might feel emboldened to expand its own nuclear programs. In addition, North Korea’s ailing economy may lead Pyongyang to transfer nuclear technology or materials to terrorist groups in return for financial gains. This scenario, though remote in probability, should not be overlooked.
So what are the available options? The United States can rally international support for economic sanctions, though North Korea’s lack of economic ties with the West may prove this strategy to be fruitless. After all, the threat of cutting off trade or economic aid is meaningless to a regime that has survived all these years without them. One of the options available to the US is to seek closer cooperation from China, the country that may have the most influence on North Korea.
China historically opposed any preventative strikes against North Korea; such was the case during the early 1990s, when the Clinton administration seriously considered a strike on North Korean nuclear installations. However, given the recent changes, China had begun to change its tune. A sharp change in Chinese attitude may convince Pyongyang that it truly is alone. The Chinese had viewed North Korea’s 2006 test with much consternation and issued its own condemnations. Beijing was even quicker in issuing its denunciation for the May 25th test, stating just hours after the test that “…the Chinese government is firmly opposed to this act…China strongly urges [North Korea] to honor its commitment to denuclearization, stop relevant moves that may further worsen the situation, and return to the Six-Party Talks”. This may be a sign that the Chinese are ready and willing to take stronger actions. Perhaps Beijing can be persuaded to make its fuel and food aid to North Korea conditional on denuclearization.
Whatever shape or form the US policy response may take, it must be one that has the support of all the nations in the region. This will reflect US abandonment of its old unilateral ways and can potentially tightened diplomatic framework in the region. Ultimately, it will be immense international pressure that can affect the denuclearization of North Korea.
